Structural changes matter much more than one off deviations
You might enjoy reading this: https://warrenmosler.com/aframeworkfortheanalysisofpriceandinflation/
Especially sections 3, 5 & 6
You might enjoy reading this: https://warrenmosler.com/aframeworkfortheanalysisofpriceandinflation/
Especially sections 3, 5 & 6