An important thing to consider is what the correlation between the NAIRU estimates and all these other indicators is. And, even more so, whether any divergence between these indicators and the NAIRU is useful for forecasting. That is, to the extent that they are useful, is it merely the degree to which they track the NAIRU?
My suspicion is that all these indicators are doing is adding noise to the assessment. Useful noise if you don't want to be tied down on what your estimate actually is, and even more so if you don't want to be accused of wanting to put people out of work; as the RBA was early in this Governor's tenure. But not so useful if you are trying to make accurate forecasts of the state of the economy and setting policy appropriately.
Edit: And having found the source document my suspicions are confirmed. From the note: "While some indicators suggest a lower NAIRU estimate than others, these tend to be series with a poorer fit (employment intentions, hires rate and capacity utilisation) or a short back history (job ads)." So taking a simple average puts undue weight on indicators that have a poor fit.
I guess time will tell.
(And I agree with your interpretation of the data - net demand is still strong and the current inflation rate flatters the RBA's choices.)
An important thing to consider is what the correlation between the NAIRU estimates and all these other indicators is. And, even more so, whether any divergence between these indicators and the NAIRU is useful for forecasting. That is, to the extent that they are useful, is it merely the degree to which they track the NAIRU?
My suspicion is that all these indicators are doing is adding noise to the assessment. Useful noise if you don't want to be tied down on what your estimate actually is, and even more so if you don't want to be accused of wanting to put people out of work; as the RBA was early in this Governor's tenure. But not so useful if you are trying to make accurate forecasts of the state of the economy and setting policy appropriately.
Edit: And having found the source document my suspicions are confirmed. From the note: "While some indicators suggest a lower NAIRU estimate than others, these tend to be series with a poorer fit (employment intentions, hires rate and capacity utilisation) or a short back history (job ads)." So taking a simple average puts undue weight on indicators that have a poor fit.
I guess time will tell.
(And I agree with your interpretation of the data - net demand is still strong and the current inflation rate flatters the RBA's choices.)